March 17, 2026
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are forcing global energy markets to reassess long-standing LNG supply assumptions. In this Q&A for a national news outlet, World Business Academy Founder & President Rinaldo S. Brutoco discusses how the Iran conflict could reshape the LNG market and accelerate broader shifts in global energy security.
On Global LNG Markets
Q: Do you expect traditional Middle Eastern LNG buyers to diversify their supply sources?
A: Yes, both in the short and long term. Buyers will increasingly look to suppliers like the United States, Indonesia, and other producers that can reach global markets without transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Over time, Gulf countries will also pursue alternative shipping routes to reduce reliance on that geopolitical chokepoint. For example, just this week the Saudi’s have begun. Piping oil to a Red Sea facility they control through a pipeline that already existed. They still may have a challenge getting the oil of the Red Sea as the Houthi’s in Yemen, allies of Iran, could block the exit point at the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Q: Is there growing sentiment that certain regions could be “safe haven” LNG suppliers compared with the Middle East?
A: Absolutely. The U.S. is already a major LNG exporter, and its value as a reliable long-term supplier will only rise as instability persists elsewhere. Several new U.S. export terminals were already underway before the current conflict and are likely to accelerate production. Indonesia and a number of emerging exporters could also benefit as buyers seek a politically stable supply.
Q: Many analysts believe the conflict may be short-lived. Do you expect buyers to re-strategize regardless of the timeline and just move away from conflict-prone regions?
A: Yes. Even if the conflict ends quickly, the shock has already exposed how vulnerable LNG supply chains can be. Once markets experience that level of risk, buyers rarely revert to the old model. I think we can expect a strategic shift away from conflict-prone regions and toward diversified supply.
Even if conflict-prone regions weren’t as volatile as they are, it is clear that the Trump administration does not understand the problem it’s created. Trump struck a hornet’s nest, not expecting the hornets to sting. After surviving an incredible assault, the Iranians will now want to demonstrate that they can humiliate Trump. I think the Iran conflict will last longer than Trump anticipates. The situation, like quicksand, is only becoming more difficult to escape as time passes.
Q: To what extent are buyers reconsidering reliance on Qatari long-term volumes despite Qatar’s reputation for reliability?
A: Qatar remains a major and credible long-term supplier, but it faces a logistical challenge since its exports rely heavily on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Unless alternative transport routes or infrastructure are developed, buyers will factor that geopolitical risk more heavily into procurement decisions.
Q: Are buyers likely to seek greater contract flexibility?
A: Yes. In the short term, buyers have limited leverage because they urgently need supply. Over time, however, buyers will push for contract adjustments, including shorter terms, diversionary rights, destination, flexible volumes, etc. As alternative supply sources expand, the balance of power will gradually shift toward buyers and will create a “buyers’ market,” but that time is not now.
Q: Could we see a shift toward spot markets if supply risk increases?
A: Yes. When long-term contracting behavior is no longer reliable, which is the current case, the spot market becomes dominant. That will remain so until the “buyers’ market” returns.
Q: How transformative could this conflict be for LNG trade flows over the next 5–10 years?
A: The Iranian conflict has already triggered a significant reassessment of geopolitical risk in LNG markets. Because the Trump administration took everyone by surprise, the world is going to rapidly adjust to the idea that the US has become a “rogue elephant in the village,” which means conflict-prone areas will never be truly safe while that belief continues.
This massive miscalculation by the Trump administration is also going to accelerate the development of new trading hubs outside the Middle East and greater experimentation with processing gas into derivative fuels or fertilizers at the point of origin to diversify export pathways.
On U.S. Markets
Q: Could U.S. LNG exporters benefit from buyers seeking alternative supply?
A: Yes, significantly. The fundamental problem is not just the current conflict but the long-term vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. That chokepoint is only about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and easily threatened by relatively inexpensive military technologies. As a result, buyers will increasingly view U.S. LNG as a geopolitical hedge.
Q: Could the U.S. LNG project pipeline realistically absorb additional long-term demand if buyers pivot in this direction? How long would it take for the U.S. to meet this additional demand?
A: Yes. The U.S. has ample production potential. The real constraint is infrastructure, particularly pipelines and export capacity. If new pipeline technologies such as advanced poly pipe are used, infrastructure could be built much faster and cheaper than traditional steel systems, accelerating the ability to meet global demand. But if traditional steel pipe is used, it will take 1.5-2 times longer.
Q: Are we likely to see a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S.? To what extent could Middle Eastern conflict accelerate investment in new LNG shipping capacity in the US and more globally?
A: Very likely. Strong global demand and geopolitical pressure to secure supply will encourage policies that facilitate faster LNG development, particularly export infrastructure. The conflict will be highly stimulative from new investment. The challenge will be the shipbuilding capacity of various countries to put more LNG tankers on the ocean. The financial incentives will be there once global markets realize that the Iran conflict is not going to end this week or this month, even if the US wants it to.
Q: Could the conflict accelerate investment in LNG shipping capacity?
A: Yes. Demand for LNG tankers will rise globally if supply routes shift away from the Gulf. The primary constraint will be shipbuilding capacity, but the financial incentives to slightly expand fleets will be strong in the longer term. In the short term, the existing fleet will be re-directed from the Strait of Hormuz shipping routes.
Q: Could geopolitical concerns cement the U.S. as Asia’s long-term LNG supplier?
A: It strengthens the U.S. position, especially given Asia’s growing demand. However, Indonesia and other regional exporters could also play a significant role. In the near term, the real bottlenecks will be LNG carriers and terminal capacity—not supply itself.
Q: What is the longer-term outlook for LNG demand?
A: Over the long run, LNG demand may plateau or decline as more countries invest in domestic renewable energy. Solar, wind, geothermal, and other alternatives are already reducing fossil fuel demand growth. This crisis is likely to reinforce a global push for nation-state energy independence and diversified domestic energy systems.